Harri Tiido: The case for pragmatic federalism in European defence

Estonian foreign policy commentator Harri Tiido examines three pathways for developing European defence capabilities outlined in the Sauli Niinistö report published in May. The analysis comes amid growing uncertainty over continued US engagement in European security.

In his regular Vikerraadio commentary series "Harri Tiido taustajutud", Estonian diplomat and analyst [Harri Tiido](/politicians/harri-tiido) turns his attention to one of the most pressing questions facing the continent: how should Europe develop its own defence capabilities at a time when American commitment to the continent's security is no longer a given?

The starting point for Tiido's analysis is a report published in May bearing the name of former Finnish President [Sauli Niinistö](/politicians/sauli-niinisto). The document lays out three distinct paths Europe could take in building up its defence capacity — each reflecting a different assumption about how far US disengagement might ultimately go.

## Three paths forward

The Niinistö report acknowledges a range of scenarios, from a partial reduction in American involvement to a complete withdrawal from European security arrangements. The three options it outlines vary significantly in terms of the level of political integration and joint investment they would require from European states.

Tiido frames his commentary around the concept of pragmatic federalism — the idea that deeper European defence cooperation does not necessarily require full political union, but rather a willingness among member states to pool resources, share command structures, and make binding commitments to one another in ways that go beyond existing frameworks.

## Why this matters for Estonia

For a small NATO member on the eastern flank like Estonia, the stakes in this debate are particularly high. Any shift in US posture directly affects the security calculations of the Baltic states, which have historically relied on American troop presence and extended deterrence as a cornerstone of their defence. The question of whether Europe can credibly fill that gap — and how quickly — is not abstract in Tallinn.