Harri Tiido: On pragmatic federalism in European defence

Estonian analyst Harri Tiido examines a report authored by former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, which outlines three paths for developing Europe's defence capabilities as US involvement may diminish. The piece explores the concept of pragmatic federalism as a framework for European security architecture.

A report published in May and attributed to former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö proposes three distinct paths for strengthening Europe's defence capabilities — paths that become increasingly urgent as American involvement in the continent's security may shrink or even disappear entirely. Estonian analyst Harri Tiido examines what these options mean in practice.

Three Paths for European Defence

The Niinistö report frames the challenge in stark terms: Europe must be prepared to defend itself without relying on the United States as a permanent guarantor. The three scenarios it presents range from deeper integration among EU member states to more flexible coalitions of willing nations acting outside formal EU structures.

For small countries like Estonia, the stakes in this debate are particularly high. A shift toward pragmatic federalism — where groups of European states pool resources, command structures, and defence spending without waiting for unanimous consensus — could offer a viable middle path between full EU military integration and a fragmented patchwork of bilateral agreements.

Why Pragmatism Matters for Small States

Tiido argues that the concept of pragmatic federalism deserves serious attention precisely because it does not require all 27 EU member states to move at the same pace. Coalitions of the willing, anchored by shared threat perceptions and geographic proximity, could deliver real security dividends faster than comprehensive institutional reform.

The Baltic states, sharing a border with Russia and acutely aware of their vulnerability, have long advocated for stronger European defence cooperation. Whether the Niinistö report's framework can translate into concrete policy decisions in Brussels and European capitals remains an open question — but the conversation it has sparked is one that analysts like Tiido believe can no longer be deferred.