Estonia's population could halve by 2100, Tallinn University study warns

A new population forecast by researchers at Tallinn University warns that Estonia's current low birth rate, if sustained, could shrink the country's population to below 700,000 by the end of this century. Only large-scale immigration would keep numbers at current levels.

Estonia's population could fall by nearly half before the end of this century if the country's current low birth rate continues, according to a new demographic forecast published by researchers at Tallinn University.

The study modelled several scenarios for Estonia's future population trajectory. In the baseline scenario — where fertility rates remain at their current low level and migration stays roughly balanced — the country's population would drop below 700,000 by 2100. Estonia currently has approximately 1.37 million residents.

## Only high immigration prevents decline

Researchers found that only a scenario involving significantly increased immigration would allow Estonia to maintain its current population size over the coming decades. Without such an inflow, the country faces an unavoidable demographic contraction driven primarily by persistently low birth rates.

The findings raise difficult questions for Estonian policymakers about long-term sustainability of public services, pension systems, and labour markets. Demographic decline of this scale would place severe pressure on healthcare, education, and social welfare infrastructure that is built around a larger population base.

## Broader European trend

Estonia is not alone in facing these challenges — low fertility rates are a shared concern across much of Europe — but the country's relatively small starting population makes the proportional impact especially stark. The Tallinn University forecast adds quantitative weight to a debate that Estonian politicians and planners have long acknowledged but struggled to address with lasting policy solutions.